The viability and stability of demand

This research project addresses those topics of the DARCOF III programme that concern the consumption of organic foods with particular reference to consumer conceptions of these products.

The over-all objective of this project is to explain the viability and stability of demand for organic food products at the household level, focussing on the following 3 main issues:

• How consumers conceive the attributes of organic products and the criteria employed in categorising these products in relatively integrated or diffuse ways
  
• How new information about production, processing, distribution or certification of organic products influences product preferences
  
• To what extent changes in the level of demand for organic food products at the household level can be accounted for by changes in the social situation of households, changes in ways of conceiving organic products, the influence of new information, and/or tensions between the role of consumer and that of citizen.
  

Research in this field during the last 20 years has mainly focussed on the character and level of demand seen in relation to consumer characteristics. Consumer segments have been distinguished according to the character of their declared motivation for consuming organic food and the frequency of their purchases.

However, recent research projects financed by the DARCOF II programme (Project III.1, Consumer Demand for Organic Foods - Domestic and Foreign Market Perspectives, and Project VII.13, The Role of the Distribution Channel in the Establishment and Maintenance of Consumer Trust in Organic Foods) have highlighted some of the limitations of this approach.

It has become clear that character of demand may not be successfully explained by identifying discrete motives, such as concern with health, animal welfare or the environmental impact of food production, and attempting to measure the distribution of these motives in a given population. It seems that some consumers tend to conceive these and other attributes of organic products as constituting an integrated whole, but it is not currently known how widespread this tendency is, to what extent such conceptions change over time or are influenced by market communication and news stories. It has also become clear that demand level, even when it appears to be relatively stable, in fact is far from stable at the household level. The frequency with which any one household purchases organic foods can shift dramatically within a relatively brief period of time. The reasons for these dynamic shifts in consumption level are not currently known. Questions raised by the results of these recent studies constitute the point of departure for the innovative approach adopted in this research project.

The design of the study is interdisciplinary and employs both quantitative and qualitative methods of data collection and analysis drawn from consumer economics and sociology. The work is scheduled to start in 2006, to conclude in 2009, and is divided into 3 phases or "workpackages", each of which addresses one of the issues noted above. The methods employed include focus groups and personal depth interviews, quantitative and qualitative media analysis, choice experiments, survey by postal questionnaire to a representative panel comprising 2000 Danish households, as well as a series of analysis of registered data regarding the actual food purchases made by these same households.

The project will provide a consolidated assessment of recent, current and future trends regarding the demand for organic food products on the Danish market and will make specific recommendations to stakeholders interested in promoting the viability and stability of demand for organic food.


Project title
The Viability and Stability of Demand: The Future Outlook for the Organic Market in Denmark (CONCEPTS)


Project leader
Mette Wier, Danish Institute of Governmental Research (AKF), Nyropsgade 37, DK-1602 Copenhagen V. Phone: (+45) 3311 0300. Fax 33152875. E-mail: mw@akf.dk